摩纳哥飞艇

摩纳哥飞艇2020NIANHONGGUANJINGJIZHANWANG WAIXUBUQUEDINGXINGYOUSUOHUANJIE;NEIXUZENGZHANGRENGMIANLINYALI

2019-11-08中金观点

ZIWOMENFABU2019NIANXIABANNIANZHANWANGYILAI,ZHONGGUODUIMEICHUKOUGUANSHUIYOUJINGLILEYILUNSHANGDIAO。DANJINQIZHONGMEIMAOYIMOCACHENGBIANJIHUANHETAISHI。WANGQIANKAN,WOMENJIZHUNDEJIASHESHICHUKOUZENGZHANGYOUWANGQIWEN。ZAI6YUEXIAXUNDEHONGGUANZHANWANGBAOGAOFABUHOU[1],ZHONGMEIJINGMAOCUOSHANGJIJINGBOZHE[2]——DANGQIANDEWAIXUHUANJINGLUOZAIWOMENDANGSHIJIEDINGDE“JIZHUN”HE“BEIGUAN”QINGXINGZHIJIAN,DANYUQIANZHEGENGJIEJIN。MUQIANTANPANJUSHIJIAO3JIDUSIYOUHAOZHUAN,JIANYUCI,CHUKOUZENGZHANGYOUWANGDIWEIQIWEN。

摩纳哥飞艇RANER,NEIXUZENGZHANGRENGRANMIANLINYALI。ERJINQIWUJIASHANGXINGKENENGZANSHIZHIYUENIZHOUQIDIAOJIEDELIDU。SUIRANWANQUANYOUZHUROUGONGJICHONGJISUOZHI,DANZHENGTICPISHANGSHENGJIAOKUAIRENGKENENGDUIWEILAI2GEJIDUZUOYOUHUOBIZHENGCEKUANSONGKONGJIANXINGCHENGYIDING“RUANYUESHU”。LINGYIFANGMIAN,BENLUNROUJIAJIANDINGHOUCPIDAGAILVJIANGKUAISUHUILUO、SHENZHI“CHAODIE”,YOUCIWEIHUOBIKUANSONGHEZICHANJIAGEBIAOXIANDAKAIKONGJIAN。

WOMENYUJI,2020-2021NIANSHIJIGDPZENGSUKENENGCONGJINNIANDE6.1%FANGHUANZHI5.9%HE5.8%。TONGSHI,MINGYIGDPZENGSUKENENGJIANGZHI7.3%HE6.9%(JINNIANYUQI7.9%)。WOMENYUCEDEJIZHUNJIASHESHIZHONGMEIMAOYIMOCAZANHUAN、JIZHONGMEISHUANGFANGBUZAIJIAZHENGXINDEGUANSHUI[3]。TONGSHI,2020SHANGBANNIANCPIKENENGWEICHIGAOWEI,NIZHOUQIDIAOJIELIDUKENENGZANSHIYOUSUOZHIYUE,YOUCI,HUANBIZENGZHANGDEDIDIANKENENGCHUXIANZAI2020NIAN3JIDUFUJIN。

2020NIANCPIJUNZHIKENENGSHENGZHI3.8%,ERZAI2021NIANHUILUOZHI1.2%。WEILAI2-3GEJIDUBUPAICHUCPIJIEJIN、SHENZHIGAOYU4%DEKENENGXING。CPICHONGGAOKENENGDUINIZHOUQIDIAOJIEZHENGCEDELIDUCHANSHENGZHIYUE,YADIPPI。WOMENYUCE2020NIANPPIJUNZHIZAI-2%ZUOYOU,LUJINGWEIQIANDIHOUGAO。

WOMENYUJIJINNIANLPRHERRRDOUBUZAIXIADIAO。LPRKENENGYU2020NIANXIABANNIANXIADIAO40GEJIDIAN、2021NIANSHANGBANNIANZAIXIADIAO30GEJIDIAN。MLFLILVYEKENENGXIAXING,DANFUDUHUOBUJILPR。YUJIRRRZAI2020NIANDIAOJIANG200GEJIDIAN、2021NIANZAIJIANG50GEJIDIAN。

ZHONGYANGYUDIFANGZHENGFUDEZONGCAIZHENGCHIZILVMINGNIANKENENGKUOZHANG1GEBAIFENDIANZUOYOU,ZHUYAOYOUDIFANGZHUANXIANGZHAIZAIKUORONGSHIXIAN。2020NIANYIBANGONGGONGYUSUANCHIZILVKENENGSHANGSHENGZHI3%,DIFANGZHUANXIANGZHAIEDUKENENGSHANGSHENG1.2WANYIYUANZHI3.35WANYIYUAN。LINGYIFANGMIAN,MINGNIANJIANSHUIJIANGFEIDELIDUDAGAILVBUJIJINNIAN。

摩纳哥飞艇JIYUDUIMAOYITANPANYUHUOBIZHENGCELUJINGDEYUCE,RENMINBIHUILVHUOJIANGZHAIFUBODONG、XIANYANGHOUYI——2020NIANZHONGMEIYUANDUIRENMINBIHUILVHUISHENGZHI7FUJIN,DANMINGNIANNIANDIXIAOFUBIANZHIZHI7.06。

摩纳哥飞艇WOMENDEYUCEZONGHEHENGLIANGLEQIANZAIDESHANGXINGHEXIAXINGFENGXIAN。SHANGXINGFENGXIANZHUYAOWEIZHONGMEIMAOYITANPANHAOYUYUQI,YIJINIZHOUQIDIAOJIEJUCUOCHUTAIDESHIDIANHELIDUCHAOYUQI。LINGYIFANGMIAN,CHULEWAIXUDEBUQUEDINGXINGYIWAI,XIAXINGFENGXIANBAOKUOJINRONGQUGANGGANHE/HUODICHANXIANGGUANZHENGCECHAOYUQISHOUJIN。

DUANQINEIJINGJIZENGZHANGYUWUJIASHANGZHANGZHIJIAN“QUANHENG”GENGWEIKUNNAN,BUSHIWEIGAIGEDEQIJI——BUPAICHUZHENGFUZHENGCECAIQUGENGDUOGAIGECUOSHICUJINJIUYEZENGZHANG,YOUQISHIJIANGDIDUIJIUYE“XINANENGLI”QIANG、QIEQIANJINGJIAOHAODEFUWUYEDEZHUNRUMENJIAN。


注:
[1] 请参见我们2019年6月16日发布的中国宏观专题报告《贸易摩擦升温,经济增长承压 | 2019下半年中国宏观展望》。
[2] 于9月1日对最后一批2500亿中国对美出口商品中的一部分(约40%左右)加征15%的关税,但此后延迟了本应于9月15日实施的一轮关税上调。
[3] 即美方无限期延迟或取消原计划于12月15日对3000亿美元清单中第二批商品加征15%关税。

 

点击下载附件2020年宏观经济展望 外需不确定性有所缓解;内需增长仍面临压力(点击查看概要原文和法律声明)